As divers
pull more bodies from a Taiwanese river where a TransAsia Airways propjet
crashed shortly after takeoff, DW takes a look at the airline's safety record
and what is known about the cause of the crash.
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Baggages are placed near the wreckage of TransAsia Airways plane Flight GE235
after it crash landed into a river, in New Taipei City February 5, 2015 (Photo:
Reuters/Pichi Chuang) |
The
horrifying footage of TransAsia Flight GE235's crash on February 4 went viral
around the world. Captured by at least two cars carrying dashboard cameras, the
videos show how the plane banked steeply away from buildings in Taiwan's
capital, Taipei, hit an elevated road and crashed into the Keelung River -
leaving behind a trail of debris and a smashed taxi.
The
TransAsia ATR 72-600 went down shortly after taking off from Taipei's downtown
Songshan airport with 58 people on board, killing at least 35 of them. The
one-year-old aircraft was bound for the Taiwanese island of Kinmen. Among those
on board were 31 tourists from China, mainly from the southwestern city of
Xiamen.
Engine shut
down manually
As people
in both Taiwan and China mourn the victims of the tragedy, investigators are
frantically trying to find out what went wrong.
 |
The footage of TransAsia's crash
went viral around the world |
According
to Taiwan's Aviation Safety Council, both engines of the turboprop plane failed
before it plummeted into the shallow river.
"Based
on the data we have so far, we can see that for a period of time both engines
showed no thrust," said Thomas Wang, director of the agency, based on
information from the flight data and voice recorders. "The right engine
flamed out and triggered a warning in the cockpit. The left engine was shut
down manually and the pilot tried to restart the engine but couldn't,"
Wang said, adding that it was "not clear" why the left engine was
shut down manually. "We are not reaching any judgment yet," he said.
An engine
"flameout" can occur when fuel supply to an engine is interrupted or
when there is faulty combustion. A more detailed report on the crash will be
available in next 30 days, with a final report expected in the next three to
six months.
Similarities
with British Midland Flight 92
According
to Gerry Soejatman, an independent Jakarta-based aviation analyst,confusion
among crew members seems to have led to the wrong engine being shut down.
"The Flight Data Recorder shows that it was only in the last moments that
the crew corrected their mistakes in an effort to restart the engines."
This would
be similar to what happened to British Midland Flight 92 in 1989. Back then, a
Boeing 737-400 crashed onto the embankment of the M1 motorway near Kegworth,
UK, when the pilots shut down the wrong engine after the second one had
malfunctioned.
Soejatman
therefore believes the investigation into TransAsia Flight GE235 will likely
look into the cause of the initial flameout, and how the crew ended up shutting
down the wrong engine. Daniel Tsang, a Hong Kong-based analyst at Aspire
Aviation, explains that typically planes are designed to be able to climb and
take-off even under single engine failure.
Developed
in 2007, the ATR72 600 is a new, more powerful version of the old ATR, and has
PW127M engines, which enable a five percent increase in takeoff power. The
propjet is a joint venture aircraft between Italy and France and is used
extensively around the world with a high safety record. Given that a single
engine failure is normally not enough to bring down a plane, Tsang believes
other factors seem to have been at play with Flight GE235.
'Exceptional
skill and bravery'
Whatever
caused the plane to crash, the video footage also shows that the crew fought to
save the airplane right up to the last moment. The pilot and co-pilot, whose
bodies were retrieved from the cockpit, have been praised for what seems to be
a last-ditch attempt to steer the plane away from populated areas.
"From
what I can deduce, the pilots showed both exceptional skill and bravery in
trying to keep the aircraft from hitting buildings or any built up area,"
Hugh Ritchie, chief executive of Aviation Consultants International, based in
Australia, told DW.
The expert
said that despite the engine flameout, a subsequent loss of lift and a
significant loss of directional control, the crew managed to ensure that the
aircraft missed buildings and it appears that they were trying to do a belly
landing on the Keelung River.
Ritchie
also pointed out the flameout may have been caused by a bird striking the
engine: "Songshan Airport is renowned for bird strikes, with a large
number of birds nesting on or around the runway in ground nests."
Safety
record
Founded in
1951, TransAsia Airways is Taiwan's third largest airline. The private company
mainly flies on domestic routes within Taiwan, but has also added some two
dozen routes to mainland China. It also offers flights to other North Asian
destinations in Japan and Korea.
But
analysts say the airline's safety record is reason for concern as it has
written off five planes since 1995 and had seven serious incidents over the
past 20 years, four of which resulted in fatalities, according to data from
Flightglobal Ascend, an industry consultancy.
The
February 4 accident comes just seven months after another fatal crash which
claimed the lives of 48 of the 58 people on board. The incident occurred in
July 2014 when the pilots of an ATR 72-500 tried to land the aircraft at Penghu
Island, off mainland China. "The accident can be attributed to pilot error
of flying in extremely bad weather and trying to land when conditions were well
beyond aircraft limit," said Ritchie.
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Multiple plane crashes in Asia in the past one year have increased
air safety concerns in the region |
It has also
emerged that as of the end of December 2014, TransAsia had failed to meet
around a third of the requirements the Civil Aeronautics Administration (CAA)
demanded as a result of the July crash. Moreover, Macau's Civil Aviation
Authority said the engines of Flight GE235 had been replaced at Macau Airport
in April last year "due to engine-related technical issues."
The CAA has
grounded a total of 22 Taiwanese ATR planes for safety checks to inspect
maintenance issues following the accident, and TransAsia has been banned from
applying for new routes for one year.
'No trust,
no ticket sales'
In view of
this development, Hamburg-based independent aviation expert Heinrich
Grossbongardt believes the latest incident could have a severe economic impact
on the airline. "Without the trust of the people, no airline is able to
sell tickets," he said. The analyst pointed out that Malaysia Airlines,
for instance, is fighting for survival after two tragedies last year, despite
the fact that the carrier and its management in both cases most likely only
bear a minor part of the blame – if any.
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TransAsia has had seven serious safety
incidents over the past 20 years |
In the case
of TransAsia, however, there are signs that pilot error has been a contributing
factor in some accidents, which raises doubt about the safety culture and the
operating procedures of the entire airline, Grossbongardt told DW.
Neil
Hansford, chairman of Strategic Aviation Solutions, agrees: "There is a
thing in the industry that you are only as good as your next crash." The
Australian expert argues that in most countries this number of crashes would be
terminal and the regulator would immediately stop any fleet additions and new
routes and make the carrier downsize to a level where they can operate
competently and safely with an ability to be profitable.
Nonetheless,
analyst Tsang believes the economic impact will likely be limited.
"Short-term bookings are expected to come under pressure, but given its
prized routes out of a downtown airport in Taipei, TransAsia's bookings should
rebound." This would be similar to what happened after the July 2014 crash
which resulted in a sharp slump in revenue for about a month, but then
passenger traffic rebounded again a month later.
According
to Rajiv Biswas, Asia-Pacific Chief Economist at the analytics firm IHS,
TransAsia was helped by the popularity of its flight connections out of Songshan
Airport, which is much closer and more accessible than Taipei's main Taoyuan
international airport, which is 40 kilometers from downtown.
Moreover,
the number of passengers using direct commercial flights between mainland China
and Taiwan has risen sharply from five million in 2010 - the first full year of
direct scheduled flights - to an estimated nine million in 2013. Negotiations
are currently underway between China and Taiwan to allow mainland Chinese
travelers to make transit stops in Taiwan on their way to other destinations.
Asia needs
pilots
But many
industry experts are concerned that the shortage of experienced pilots might
jeopardize the safety of air travel in Asia. A number of accidents and
incidents involving latest generation aircraft inside and outside the region
(e.g. the Asiana crash in San Francisco) might be signs on the wall.
According
to the latest Boeing study, the region needs 255,000 new pilots by 2033, which
means some 20,000 every year. When an airline takes delivery of an additional
jet it needs 14 pilots on average to operate the aircraft. But as Grossbongardt
explains, the crew's level of experience is at least as important, especially
in a region where severe weather is a frequent occurrence and navigation aids
at smaller airports don't always have the highest standard.
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In December, AirAsia flight QZ8501 crashed
into the Java Sea, leaving 162 people dead |
"The
problem with experience is: it only builds with flight hours," said the
analyst. Carriers which can afford it have started hiring pilots from Europe
and the US. But this will not be a solution in the long run, because a pilot
shortage is looming in these regions as well.
A downward
trend in safety?
Aviation
analyst Ritchie says the aviation industry is witnessing a downward trend in
safety oversight. "This, I believe is a global phenomenon brought about to
some extent by the introduction of self-auditing of the quality safety
management of airlines, airports and maintenance organizations which are
overseen by regulators who are neither skilled nor capable due to the increased
aircraft operations to clearly maintain oversight of airport and
airlines," he said.
The analyst
argues that with the increased number of low cost carriers and the subsequent
rise in flight operations over the past few years, there has also been a
reduction of safety oversight and management awareness. "Too often
economic and operational management imperatives impact safety decisions,"
Ritchie said.
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Relatives
of the victims pray during a Buddhist ritual near the wreckage of
TransAsia
Airways plane Flight GE235 after it crash landed into a river, in New
Taipei
City, February 5, 2015. Reuters/River Wang
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