Yahoo – AFP,
Tangi QUEMENER, September 11, 2017
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| Chinese companies are betting big on electric cars, like the 'LeSEE' concept car internet company LeEco Holdings Ltd unveiled in last year. (AFP Photo/STR) |
Frankfurt
am Main (AFP) - Beijing's announcement that it is considering joining France
and Britain in banning petrol and diesel cars from its smog-clogged roads
promises to accelerate a push towards electric vehicles -- a race in which
Chinese carmakers have everything to gain.
As the
global auto industry braces for a shake up, here's what you need to know.
What's it
all about?
While
France and Britain have said they plan to outlaw sales of new diesel and petrol
cars by 2040, Beijing has not yet set a date for its proposed ban.
But if
China, the world's largest car market, turns its back on fossil-fuel powered
cars, it could change the auto industry forever.
With annual
sales of some 24 million vehicles, China is home to one in every four new cars
on the planet. By 2024, analysts at AlixPartners forecast sales will climb to
42 million annually, accounting for 36 percent of the global market.
By
comparison, France and Britain each record sales of some two million new cars
per year.
"If
China says no more ICE (internal combustion engine), the rest of the world will
follow because the rest of the world can't lose China's market. It's too
big," says Bill Russo, managing director of Gao Feng Advisory Group in
Shanghai.
The mooted
driving bans promise to be a hot topic of discussion at the Frankfurt
International Motor Show (IAA) this week, Europe's top industry showcase.
What does
it mean for carmakers in China?
By law,
foreign carmakers are required to team up with Chinese companies if they want
to do business in the country.
With China
also mulling quotas for electric vehicles -- another move that could jolt the
industry, traditional auto giants from Europe, the United States and Japan have
no time to waste in expanding their ranges of hybrid and electric cars, experts
say.
 |
The benefit
from electric cars will depend in part how electricity is generated.
(AFP
Photo/FRED DUFOUR)
|
"European
carmakers will have to step up their efforts in electric vehicles if they don't
want to be chased out of the market, because their current offerings are
insufficient," says analyst Stefan Bratzel, head of Germany's Center of
Automotive Management.
Electric
cars only account for 1.7 percent of total sales in China at the moment, but
spurred by government incentives the figure has been growing steadily and could
skyrocket in coming years.
Chinese
carmakers have bet big on the cleaner engines of the future, and account for 96
percent of electric vehicles sold in the country -- compared to a market share
of just 43 percent in the traditional car sector.
Anticipating
the industry revolution, Chinese firms already dominate the production of
electric motors and batteries. "This poses a real problem for the European
industry," says Laurent Petizon of AlixPartners.
The era of
the combustion engine "will end on a time schedule where China can assure
itself that its own domestic carmakers are capable of delivering the solution
they would like to see on the road," Russo predicts.
Is this
good news for the environment?
Not
necessarily. While pedestrians and cyclists in pollution-plagued mega-cities
may breathe easier around the purring of electric cars, how 'green' the
vehicles are depends on how clean the manufacturing process was.
In China,
fossil fuel plants with their climate-altering carbon emissions still power the
bulk of the country's factories.
Promising
to clean up its act, the government has said it wants 20 percent of Chinese
power consumption to come from low-emission energy by 2030, up from 11 percent
currently.
In France,
which derives 75 percent of its energy from nuclear power, a massive switch
towards electric cars would theoretically translate in a significant reduction
of harmful carbon emissions.
Any
electric car boom will also bring scrutiny to the environmental footprint of
battery production, from the extraction of raw materials like lithium to the
complex recycling of toxic components.
Graph illustrating the rising trend in sales of #electricvehicles worldwide since 2012, with China leading the way https://t.co/7gwKpElsyQ pic.twitter.com/Rd4Elnail5— AFP news agency (@AFP) September 13, 2017
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