More carmakers caught in headlights of VW engine-rigging scandal

More carmakers caught in headlights of VW engine-rigging scandal
Volkswagen has admitted it installed illegal software into 11 million 2.0 liter and 3.0 liter diesel engines worldwide (AFP Photo/Josh Edelson)

Volkswagen emissions scandal

Iran's 'catastrophic mistake': Speculation, pressure, then admission

Iran's 'catastrophic mistake': Speculation, pressure, then admission
Analsyts say it is irresponsible to link the crash of a Ukraine International Airline Boeing 737-800 to the 737 MAX accidents (AFP Photo/INA FASSBENDER)

Missing MH370 likely to have disintegrated mid-flight: experts

Missing MH370 likely to have disintegrated mid-flight: experts
A Malaysia Airlines Boeing 777 commercial jet.

QZ8501 (AirAsia)

Leaders see horror of French Alps crash as probe gathers pace

"The Recalibration of Awareness – Apr 20/21, 2012 (Kryon channeled by Lee Carroll) (Subjects: Old Energy, Recalibration Lectures, God / Creator, Religions/Spiritual systems (Catholic Church, Priests/Nun’s, Worship, John Paul Pope, Women in the Church otherwise church will go, Current Pope won’t do it), Middle East, Jews, Governments will change (Internet, Media, Democracies, Dictators, North Korea, Nations voted at once), Integrity (Businesses, Tobacco Companies, Bankers/ Financial Institutes, Pharmaceutical company to collapse), Illuminati (Started in Greece, with Shipping, Financial markets, Stock markets, Pharmaceutical money (fund to build Africa, to develop)), Shift of Human Consciousness, (Old) Souls, Women, Masters to/already come back, Global Unity.... etc.) - (Text version)

… The Shift in Human Nature

You're starting to see integrity change. Awareness recalibrates integrity, and the Human Being who would sit there and take advantage of another Human Being in an old energy would never do it in a new energy. The reason? It will become intuitive, so this is a shift in Human Nature as well, for in the past you have assumed that people take advantage of people first and integrity comes later. That's just ordinary Human nature.

In the past, Human nature expressed within governments worked like this: If you were stronger than the other one, you simply conquered them. If you were strong, it was an invitation to conquer. If you were weak, it was an invitation to be conquered. No one even thought about it. It was the way of things. The bigger you could have your armies, the better they would do when you sent them out to conquer. That's not how you think today. Did you notice?

Any country that thinks this way today will not survive, for humanity has discovered that the world goes far better by putting things together instead of tearing them apart. The new energy puts the weak and strong together in ways that make sense and that have integrity. Take a look at what happened to some of the businesses in this great land (USA). Up to 30 years ago, when you started realizing some of them didn't have integrity, you eliminated them. What happened to the tobacco companies when you realized they were knowingly addicting your children? Today, they still sell their products to less-aware countries, but that will also change.

What did you do a few years ago when you realized that your bankers were actually selling you homes that they knew you couldn't pay for later? They were walking away, smiling greedily, not thinking about the heartbreak that was to follow when a life's dream would be lost. Dear American, you are in a recession. However, this is like when you prune a tree and cut back the branches. When the tree grows back, you've got control and the branches will grow bigger and stronger than they were before, without the greed factor. Then, if you don't like the way it grows back, you'll prune it again! I tell you this because awareness is now in control of big money. It's right before your eyes, what you're doing. But fear often rules. …

Showing posts with label IATA. Show all posts
Showing posts with label IATA. Show all posts

Thursday, November 21, 2019

Airlines' fuel practices feed doubts over climate commitment

Yahoo – AFP, November 20, 2019

How serious are airlines about cutting emissions? (AFP Photo/JOEL SAGET)

Paris (AFP) - Airlines have taken steps to reduce their carbon footprints under the gaze of public opinion, but the pressure of the bottom line means some fly with extra fuel, boosting emissions of climate-changing greenhouse gases.

As the highly competitive air travel industry is being pushed to reduce its carbon emissions -- which it puts at two to three percent of the global total -- the practice known as fuel tankering has become an acid test for airlines' commitment to really go green.

In fuel tankering, an aircraft's tanks are filled sufficiently at the departure airport to avoid having to take on additional fuel for the return leg at a destination airport where fuel costs may be higher, or there are supply issues.

According to a study by Eurocontrol, the practice is a money-saving strategy for airlines as it outweighs the cost of additional fuel needed to carry the extra weight on the outbound flight.

"Aviation is a very competitive market and each airline needs to minimise operating costs, in order to keep its ticket prices as competitive as possible," said the group, an inter-governmental organisation that helps harmonise regulations in the sector.

With fuel accounting for up to 25 percent of airlines' operating expenses, "saving fuel has become a major challenge for aviation", it added.

Eurocontrol found that in Europe fuel tankering concerns about one in six flights, on average resulting in an extra 136 kg of fuel burned.

Despite the additional fuel cost of 75 euros it still results in a net saving of 126 euros per flight. That saving also includes nine euros for purchasing carbon allowances for the 428kg of additional CO2 generated.

The report estimated that in Europe fuel tankering could generate net savings of 265 million euros per year for airlines, while adding 286,000 tonnes of fuel burnt and 901,000 tonnes of CO2 emissions.

"This represents about 2,800 round-trips between Paris and New York or the annual emissions of a European city of 100,000 inhabitants," said the report.

The airline industry estimates it accounts for 2-3 percent of global CO2 emissions 
(AFP Photo/ANDREW COWIE)

Everybody does it.

After being called out for fuel tankering by the BBC, British Airways called it a "common practice across the airline industry" and said that it is done for "operational, safety and price reasons".

British Airways said it resorts to fuel tankering for "mainly short-haul destinations where there are considerable fuel price differences between European airports".

Willy Walsh, the head of IAG, British Airway's parent company, acknowledged that the issue shows that airlines are torn between economic and environmental imperatives.

"What we see today is that there is often a conflict between what we do that makes a commercial and financial sense and the things we should be doing from an environmental point of view," he told investors at a gathering at the beginning of November.

Germany's Lufthansa said it resorts to fuel tankering only exceptionally for operational reasons because the practice "goes against our goal of reducing carbon emissions," said a spokesman.

Air France said it practiced fuel tankering only on "some specific" routes for economic or organisational reasons.

Planting trees to offset emissions (AFP Photo/JOHANNES EISELE)

Offsets

The airline industry adopted in 2016 a mechanism called CORSIA to offset any increase in CO2 emissions from 2020 levels using tree-planting and other schemes that absorb carbon.

This will allow the industry to continue to grow to meet rising demand for air travel without adding any additional carbon on a net basis.

Budget airline easyJet announced it plans to go further by offsetting emissions from all flights.

Most airlines have also undertaken efforts to reduce their emissions such as optimising flight paths, using electric towing vehicles or reducing the weight of seats.

But these efforts are not sufficient believes Andrew Murphy of the non-governmental organisation Transport and Environment.

"The increase of aviation emissions and stories like this show that actually the industry isn't doing enough and actually we can't just rely on the industry to cut it's own emissions," said Murphy.

"The equation is super complex" to arrive at a reduction of emissions when the volume of air traffic is expected to double every 15 to 20 years, said Pascal Fabre, an air travel expert at the consultancy Alix Partners.

The situation is even more daunting as airlines need to make money to survive, with around a dozen going out of business in the past year and a half according to the International Air Transport Association (IATA).

Related Article:


Thursday, May 4, 2017

Made-in-China passenger jet set to take wing

Yahoo – AFP, Albee ZHANG, May 3, 2017

The C919's test flight comes after almost a decade of effort by Chinese
 authrorities to build a domestic aviation giant and reduce reliance on
Boeing and Airbus

China is expected within days to carry out the maiden test flight of a home-grown passenger jet built to meet soaring Chinese travel demand and challenge the dominance of Boeing and Airbus.

The C919, built by state-owned aerospace manufacturer Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China (COMAC), was set to take wing over Shanghai and could be cleared for takeoff as early as Friday, according to state media.

The narrow-body jet represents nearly a decade of effort in a state-mandated drive to reduce dependence on European consortium Airbus and US aerospace giant Boeing.

"The first flight itself is not a huge deal. (But) of course, it's going to be a hugely symbolic moment in the evolution of China's aviation industry," said Greg Waldron, Asia managing editor at industry publication Flightglobal.

The C919 is the country's first big passenger plane and the latest sign of growing Chinese ambition and technical skill, coming one week after China launched its first domestically made aircraft carrier and successfully docked a cargo spacecraft with an orbiting space lab.

The C919 can seat 168 passengers and has a range of up to 5,555 kilometres (3,444 miles).

Long way to go

China is a huge battleground for Boeing and Airbus, with its travellers taking to the skies in ever-growing numbers.

China homegrown jet

The Chinese travel market is expected to surpass the United States by 2024, according to the International Air Transport Association (IATA).

Airbus has estimated Chinese airlines will need nearly 6,000 new planes over the next two decades, while Boeing foresees 6,800 aircraft. Both put the combined price tags for those planes at around $1 trillion.

But aviation analysts said Shanghai-based COMAC has a long journey ahead before it can challenge the lock held on the market by Boeing and Airbus.

"This is an important milestone for China with this new aircraft. But for it to move to the next stage, which is to sell this product, is not going to be so easy," said Shukor Yusof, an analyst with Malaysia-based aviation consultancy Endau Analytics.

But COMAC may be able to rely on purchases by fast-growing Chinese airlines as it looks to get sales off the ground.

COMAC had already received 570 orders by the end of last year, almost all from domestic airlines.

Waldron agreed it will take time, but said that over the next century China will become a world aviation player.

"You are going to have three big companies. You will have Boeing, you will have Airbus, and you will have COMAC," he said.

Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China (COMAC) had already 
received 570 orders by the end of last year, almost all from domestic airlines

China has dreamed of building its own civil aircraft since the 1970s, when it began work on the narrow-body Y-10, which was eventually deemed unviable and never entered service.

COMAC's first regional jet, the 90-seat ARJ 21, entered service in 2016, several years late.

Long-haul ambition

The ARJ 21 is currently restricted to flying Chinese domestic routes as it still lacks the crucial US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) certification that would allow it to fly US skies.

The C919's first test flight had been due to take place in 2016 but was delayed.

Besides the C919, China is also working with Russia to develop a long-haul wide-bodied jet called the C929.

Although the C919 is made in China, foreign firms are playing key roles by supplying systems as well as the engines, which are made by CFM International, a joint venture between General Electric (GE) of the US and France's Safran.

During a visit to COMAC in 2014, President Xi Jinping said not having a homegrown plane left China at the mercy of foreign industrial groups, state media reported at the time.

China last August launched a new multi-billion dollar jet-engine conglomerate with nearly 100,000 employees, with the hope of powering its own planes with self-made engines.

After the C919's first flight, it will still need to pass a series of tests to obtain Chinese airworthiness certification before it can sell the aircraft.

China also has for years been in talks with the FAA to obtain certification for both the ARJ 21 and the C919, without result.



Wednesday, July 23, 2014

FAA bars US airlines from Israel for 24 hours amid Gaza crisis

Yahoo – AFP, July 23, 2014

FAA bars US airlines from Israel for
24 hours amid Gaza crisis (AFP)
Washington (AFP) - The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) banned US airlines Tuesday from flying to and from Israel for at least 24 hours amid safety concerns sparked by the ongoing crisis in Gaza.

The US government agency said its prohibition applied only to US air carriers, and that "updated instructions" would be issued "as soon as conditions permit."

Delta, US Airways and United Airlines had earlier halted flights to and from Tel Aviv's main Ben Gurion International Airport, amid reports of a rocket strike nearby.

"Due to the potentially hazardous situation created by the armed conflict in Israel and Gaza, all flight operations to/from Ben Gurion International Airport by US operators are prohibited until further advised," said the FAA's Notice to Airmen, or NOTAM, issued shortly after 1600 GMT.

"This NOTAM will be updated within 24 hours," it added.

In a press statement, the FAA said it immediately notified US carriers when it learned of the rocket strike, informing them that a NOTAM was in the works.

Prior to the NOTAM being issued, however, Delta announced it had diverted a Tel Aviv-bound flight to Paris after "reports of a rocket or associated debris" near the airport.

"Delta, in coordination with the US Federal Aviation Administration, is doing so to ensure the safety and security of our customers and employees," it said in a statement.

US Airways meanwhile told AFP in a Twitter exchange it had canceled its flights Tuesday between Philadelphia and Tel Aviv "in response to security concerns" at Ben Gurion airport.

And United said: "We're suspending operations to/from Tel Aviv until further notice. We'll continue to evaluate the situation."

It was more discreet on its website, where it said its two flights Tuesday to Tel Aviv from Newark airport outside New York had been "canceled due to aircraft availability."

Fears of a rocket hitting a passenger airliner have surged worldwide after last week's downing of a Malaysia Airlines Boeing 777 over eastern Ukraine with nearly 300 on board.

That incident underscored the vulnerability of commercial aircraft to surface-to-air missiles, even at cruising altitudes in excess of 30,000 feet.

Delta said its diverted flight Tuesday was a Boeing 747 with 273 passengers as well as 17 crew on board, and that it was "working to reaccommodate these customers."


Planes of German airline Lufthansa wait on the airfield at Duesseldorf
 International airport, March 13, 2014, in Germany (AFP Photo/
Patrik Stollarz)


Tuesday, December 14, 2010

World's 5 biggest airlines now from Asia, LatAm

The Jakarta Post, Frank Jordans, Associated Press, Geneva | Tue, 12/14/2010

The world's five biggest airlines now hail from Asia and Latin America, highlighting the industry's shift away from the US and Europe to higher-growth countries, the International Air Transport Association said Tuesday.

Air China is twice the size of either Delta in the US or Germany's Lufthansa. But despite emerging markets' strength and a broad earnings rebound this year, weak economic conditions in Europe and low margins are acting as a drag on profits, the group warned.

"The world is changing in aviation, and it's changing very, very quickly," IATA Chief Executive Giovanni Bisignani told a news conference in Geneva. "Rapidly deveping markets are shifting the industry's center of gravity to the East."

Air China has a market capitalization of US$20 billion, followed by Singapore airlines with $14 billion and Hong Kong-based Cathay Pacific with $12 billion.

China Southern has a market cap of $11 billion, as does LATAM, the Latinmerican airline recently created from the merger of Chile's LAN and TAM of Brazil. U.S. carrier Delta and Germany's Lufthansa follow with market capitalizations of $10 billion each.

IATA said strong growth in developing countries and a rebound in North America are largely responsible for the industry's recvery this year.

Airlines will see net profits of $15.1 billion in 2010, IATA said. This marks a massive turnaround from the $10 billion industry loss in 2009 and $16 billion loss in 2008.

Asian carriers will contribute $7.7 billion to the global total, while North American airlines will earn $5.1 billon. Europe, with estimated net profits of $400 million, lags behind the Middle East ($700 million) and Latin America ($1.2 billion). African carriers will earn $100 million this year, IATA said.

The full-year estimate is a significant jump from IATA's prediction in September for an $8.9 billion industry prfit in 2010.

"2011 is going to be a much more challenging period," said IATA chief economist Brian Pearce, noting that heavy debts and new taxes will weigh on consumer travel spending in Europe and North America.

IATA forecasts net profits of $9.1 billion for the industry next year.

Bisignani warned that profit margins remain "pathetically low" and pose a threat to the industry in case of another economic shock.

Recently introduced air travel taxes in Britain, Germany and Austria, and efforts to introduce a regional carbon emissions trading market harm Europe's competitiveness, he said, noting that these further squeeze profit margins for the continent's carriers.

Fuel price rises are also expected to hurt profits in 2011, further driving the industry to reduce aircraft fuel consumption and find viable renewable alternatives.

Still, the Geneva-based group representing some 230 carriers and 93 percent of scheduled air traffic said the outlook is bright for Asia.

A rapidly expanding middle class in Asia and growing demand for air links between the continent's 15 mega-cities, with over 10 million inhabitants each, promise strong industry profits in the region, Bisignani said.

If "archaic ownership rules" in the United States were changed the industry might soon see the first takeover of a U.S. carrier by an Asian airline, he added.

The Italian, who has been at the helm of IATA for nine years, will be succeeded by Cathay Pacific CEO Tony Tyler next year.

Thursday, November 4, 2010

IATA boss complains about "control terrorism" at airports

RNW, 3November 2010 - 10:12pm

The boss of the international air travel organisation IATA Giovanni Bisignani has called for an end to "control terrorism" at airports. He thinks body scanners and metal detectors are not only irritating, they are not an effective means to catch terrorists.

Dutch airline KLM and its merger partner Air France are also affiliated to IATA.

In mass circulation Dutch daily De Telegraaf Mr Bisignani says: "The current controls are unacceptable. We have to stop treating millions of innocent airpassengers like criminals. Belts, shoes and shampoo are not the problem. We have to catch terrorists."

11 September

The ever increasing controls of passengers since the 1970s, after the first planes were hijacked, are a source of irritation to the Italian IATA boss. Since 11 September 2001, in particular, travelling by air has become torturous for passengers, at the same time airports and airlines spend millions every year on security measures.

Mr Bisignani says, innocent air passengers should not have to wait for hours inqueues and more use should be made of intelligence information.


Related Articles:

Saturday, August 7, 2010

Blackout Plunges Indonesian International Airport Into Chaos

Jakarta Globe, Putri Prameshwari & Ulma Haryanto | August 07, 2010

Jakarta. Indonesia’s air transportation industry suffered a fresh embarrassment onFriday morning after a power outage of less than two seconds at Soekarno-Hatta International Airport created hours of chaos and delayed 62 flights.

A massive queue at Soekarno-Hatta on Friday.
The outage delayed 62 flights and cast doubts on
the nation’s aviation sector. (JG Photo/Safir Makki)
Tri Sumoko, director of Angkasa Pura II, which manages airports in the western part of the nation, said the power outage at 4 a.m. lasted only 1.7 seconds, but some flight management systems took hours to recover.

“The power was only down for 1.7 seconds, and then the main generator took over andprovided power for mandatory systems, like navigation and runway lights,” Trisaid. “However, the check-in system and the computerized X-ray system are not part of the mandatory facilities and it took a while for them to recover.”

The incident raises questions over Indonesia’s capacity to truly compete under Asean’s eagerly awaited agreement to impose an open-skies policy in 2015, which would liberalize regional passenger and cargo air transportation.

Tri explained that part of the problem was the airport was designed before mass computerization. “At that time, check-ins were still done manually. So nobody thought about making them a mandatory facility for the back-up generator,” hesaid.

By the time the airport’s computer systems had all returned to normal at 8 a.m., 62 flights had been delayed and thousands of passengers were left stranded and increasingly angry. Flights from Polonia airport in Medan and Ngurah Rai in Bali also had to be delayed until late afternoon because of the outage.

DahlanIskan, director of state electricity utility PLN, said the blackout was not caused by a disruption in its electricity supply. “The power outage was caused by a technical problem in the airport’s electrical circuitry,” he said.

Tengku Burhanuddin, secretary general of the Indonesia National Air Carriers Association, said airlines were paying for the delays. “The losses could add up to many thousands of dollars,” he added.

Candra Widyarjana, a passenger booked on a Lion Air flight to Yogyakarta at 6:15 a.m.,said he missed three flights. “I missed my original flight because the check-in queue was so long,” he said. “Nobody knew about rescheduled flight times. Nobody knew where I should go to fly to Yogyakarta.”

Tri denied that the airport operator had failed to provide passengers with enough information, but acknowledged that officials there were ill-prepared for such situations.

“We will immediately audit our system and map out which components need to be improved, ”he said. Other airports under the company’s management would also soon undergo the same process, he added. Improvements would take time, but “it is better than doing nothing at all.”

Asked whether passengers should be prepared for similar incidents in the future, he answered, “hopefully not.”

In December, Soekarno-Hatta’s power went out for 20 minutes, causing similar delays, but the resulting chaos was not as bad as Friday’s. Tri said the airport had not been as busy in December, and systems had been able to recover faster on that occasion.

Eko Roesni, secretary general of aviation watchdog People for Indonesia Air Transportation, said the blackouts raised questions over the airport’s quality as an international hub.

“How can it become an international hub open 24/7 if blackouts like this still happen? ”he said.

The Ministry of Transportation plans to make Soekarno-Hatta and the main airports in Surabaya, Medan, Bali and Makassar international hubs prior to the Aseanopen-skies policy change in 2015.

Eko said the government must thoroughly re-evaluate airports in Indonesia, including Soekarno-Hatta.

They must “stay up to date with the latest technology,” he said, adding that even short blackouts can ruin the image of the country’s aviation industry.

On Monday, the International Air Transport Association urged the government to invest more resources into aviation.

Giovanni Bisignani, director general of the IATA, said Indonesia lagged well behind its neighbors in aviation, and ridiculed the 25-year-old Soekarno-Hatta airport as far past its prime.

“Soekarno-Hattawas a wonderful airport but if you see it now it could be a nice resort or a golf club. The only thing that’s missing is a swimming pool,” he said.”

Additionalreporting by Made Arya Kencana, Aidi Yursal, Amir Tejo & Antara


Related Articles:

Monday, January 14, 2008

IATA bids goodbye to paper airline tickets

Alvin Darlanika Soedarjo, The Jakarta Post, Geneva, Switzerland

Paper tickets are well on their way to becoming relics of a bygone era.

The air travel industry, in its efforts to anticipate profit downturn, is striving to be more efficient by eliminating unnecessary material and prolonged service at airports.

The International Air Transport Industry (IATA), a leading aviation trade group, says the industry needs to simplify its business as soaring fuel prices and the global economic slowdown will result in lower profits in 2008, despite a steady growth in passenger numbers.

E-ticketing and self-service check-in are among the services the IATA recommends global airlines, particularly airlines from developing countries, implement in full.

"Together, these projects will save the industry US$6.5 billion annually," said Phillippe Bruyere, program director of business simplification at the IATA, which has 240 global members comprising 94 percent of scheduled international traffic.

Electronic tickets alone, which hold the information previously held on paper tickets, could save the industry at least $3 billion a year because an e-ticket costs only $1 to process as against $10 per paper ticket.

Efficiency for travelers, airline companies and travel agents is the main priority.

E-ticketing requires a database that is integrated with the airlines' passenger service systems and interfaces with all partners for the real-time processing of passengers by ground handlers and partners.

The aim is for electronic ticketing (not to be confused with the boarding pass, which is still commonplace) to be 100 percent in use this year.

The IATA has set May 2008 as the deadline for all airlines to issue tickets that passengers receive in the form of e-mail, printing the hard copies at home or in the office.

Global electronic ticketing has progressed well during 2007, reaching 89 percent, according to the IATA's October report. Indonesia, the group says, is among the countries that are in the strongest positions to bring in the all e-ticketing (ET) system. In Indonesia, the ET penetration rate has reached 92 percent.

Passenger self-service, in which passengers get their own boarding passes from automated machines at airports or from home, is becoming increasingly popular in the U.S., Europe, Africa and the Middle East.

However, the Asia Pacific region is still behind in the category. Only 30 percent of travelers in the Asia Pacific use self-service compared to 47 percent in the U.S., 42 percent in Europe and 40 percent in the Middle East.

It is hoped that passengers will soon say goodbye to long lines at check-in counters to get their boarding passes printed.

"Passengers want the speed, convenience and control that self-service offers. Airlines want to use the technology to offer these options, and improve service while cutting costs," Bruyere said at a media meeting in Geneva in December.

Some countries, such as Japan and Germany, have already implemented self-service gates for boarding. The airlines, such as JAL and Lufthansa, have found that this can speed up boarding. However, the industry still lacks the reference points and implementation standards to make this a global service.

The IATA has taken its own steps to make air travel easier.

It has set 2010 as the deadline for airlines to introduce bar-coded boarding passes, which are sent through text messages from the airlines to customers' cell phones.

Passengers will simply have to register their cell phone numbers with their airline at the time of booking to receive a text message with a two-dimensional bar code. The bar code then functions as a boarding pass.

Moreover, it has launched the IATA travel information portal at www.iatatravelcentre.com. At the time of booking, the site provides tailored information by itinerary on passport, visa and health requirements, taxes at arriving and departing airports and consumer and currency regulations. The service is offered free of charge to individual travelers.

The group says consumers are demanding more self-service and complete information to avoid documentation problems. Cases of incorrect documentation discovered at check-in are estimated to amount to around 35,000 passengers annually. They are turned back at destination or transfer points by immigration authorities due to improper documentation.

The IATA believes these services are important because in 2008 the global airline industry is predicted to face a profit downturn on the back of soaring fuel prices.

In June, when the oil prices were still relatively low, the IATA had forecasted a profit of $9.6 billion.

With the rising oil prices, analysts have also revised down the industry's total income forecast by almost 30 percent to $5 billion from the $7.8 billion they predicted in September.

"The crystal ball looks rather foggy at the moment. We expect a bill of $149 billion next year (2008), which is $14 billion more than 2007 and 30 percent of our total costs," IATA director general Giovanni Bisignani said.

The peak of the business cycle is over and we are still $190 billion in debt. We could be headed for a downturn with little cash in the banks to cushion the fall, added Bisignani.

By 2011, the IATA forecasts the air transport industry will handle 2.75 billion passengers or 620 million more passengers than in 2006. It forecasts that freight will also rise to 36 million tons or 7.5 million tons more than in 2006.

International passenger demand is expected to increase to 980 million in 2011 at an annual average growth rate of 5.1 percent. For the first 10 months of 2007, air passenger traffic grew 7.3 percent from a year earlier.

This indicates that consumer demand remains strong in most regions, particularly in the Asia-Pacific. There is high demand from customers from China, but U.S. and European demand are slowing down, especially for business-class passengers.

The U.S market certainly effects global output, IATA chief economist Bryan Pearce said. "Revenue support will drop away during 2008 as the U.S. economic slowdown directly restricts air travel growth and has knock on effects on lined economies and travel markets."

With the less favorable economic situation, airlines with old aircraft in their fleet will be the hardest hit because their engines will guzzle more fuel compared to younger aircraft. Bisignani said the airline industry, which has a 1.1 profit margin, was still considered "peanuts" in terms of income.

However, in 2009, the IATA says the industry should be in a better state. "The problem with the airline industry is there are too many airlines," Bisignani added. The association cites that there are 2,092 airlines worldwide with a total of 23,000 aircraft.

"If we compare it to the car industry, we can name the brand easily. We recommend that more airlines merge, besides simplifying their businesses," Bisignani said.