Indonesians to celebrate end of Ramadan, start cramming bus and train stations

The Jakarta Post

JAKARTA (AP): Indonesia began its annual mass exodusSunday when millions of people pour out of the major cities to return to their home villages to celebrate the end of the Muslim holy month of Ramadan.

Thousands have started crowding bus and train stations in the capital, Jakarta six days before Eid al-Fitr to beat the mass exodus later in the week when buses, cars and motorcycles create massive traffic jams on roads across the world's most populous Muslim nation.

Transport officials estimate that nearly 15 million people will head to their home villages - up 6 percent from last year - for the two day celebration next weekend.

"The exodus through land transportation is expected to reach its peak three days before the Eid al-Fitr," said senior transportation ministry official Iskandar Abubakar.

Every year, families form long lines at train and bus stations and tens of thousands wait for ferries at seaports around the country that is spread across more than 17,000 islands.

Nearly 90 percent of Indonesia's 235 million people are Muslims.

During the four weeks of Ramadan, Muslims are not supposed to eat, drink or have sex during daylight hours. On the first day of Eid al-Fitr, people flock to early morning prayers and families later gather to eat specially prepared snacks and offer them to friends and neighbors.

Domestic travel industry shows signs of recovery

Debnath Guharoy, Consultant, The Jakarta Post

Though the Indonesian transport industry has yet to make a full recovery from the crash of September 2005, it is on an upward trend.

It is poised to win back much of the ground lost as a consequence of the fuel price hikes that year. There will be no fundamental change in the demographics of travelers, either.

The number of females taking trips will be almost as many as the number of males. The younger population will be traveling more than their counterparts who are older than-50, as was the case in the past.

The number of short-trip travellers has always been higher than for long trips. The actual number of short-trip travellers each quarter is traditionally about 10 percent higher than the number of people who are intending to travel.

This is a characteristic of the industry, reflecting the need for unforeseen or unplanned travel sometimes. Similarly, the intention to travel on long trips is usually about 20 percent higher than the number of long trips taken as aspirations and plans get affected by the pressing demands of everyday life.

From 26 million travellers who moved around by land in the 12 months to March 2005, the number dipped to below 18 million as of December 2005, and has gradually clawed its way back to over 21 million at the close of 2006.

Demand overall is still lower, with around 16 million people currently intending to travel in the next 12 months. This includes some 7 million long-trip intenders, over a million of whom will scuttle their plans for unforeseen reasons. That number should be more than compensated for by the number of unplanned short-trip takers, as usual.

This forecast is based on the land, sea and air travel trends continuously measured by Roy Morgan Single Source, without including the everyday use of transportation. Indonesia's largest syndicated survey, the study is now expanding to include over 27,000 respondents this year, projected to reflect the behavior of 90 percent of the population over the age of 14.

Not surprisingly, the overwhelming majority of travel is within Indonesia. The most popular form of transport is by land, such as buses and trains, followed by air and sea. Only one in seven people get to travel each year, mostly from the mid- and lower-income brackets, in keeping with the structure of Indonesian society. Travel tapers off with age.

However, air travel is not the sole prerogative of Indonesia's small upper-income bracket. Understandably, a disproportionately bigger number of the well-to-do travels by air, but there are just as many less fortunates traveling by air within the country.

Of all Indonesians flying both domestic and international routes, two out of three are traveling for personal reasons or on holiday. If jet fuel prices remain stable and there are no more horror stories, for a while at least, the aviation industry should continue its steady recovery and achieve new heights.

Of the three big metros, Greater Jakarta, Greater Surabaya and Greater Bandung, it is the residents of West Java's capital that are the nation's most avid travellers. 26 percent of the people of Bandung, 24 percent of the people of Surabaya and 16 percent of Jakartans intend to travel next in the next 12 months.

While most of them will, of course, travel to visit family and friends within Indonesia, there are currently almost 2 million people around the country who would like to go overseas next year. About 1.5 million want to travel within the Asia Pacific region, 330,000 to Europe, 150,000 to America and 50,000 to Australia.

I should point out that they include all Indonesian frequent flyers, but exclude resident expatriates and travellers from overseas. To state the obvious, some people fly often but will be counted only as one person, not as several "passengers". As always, plans for about 20 percent of intenders are likely to fall by the wayside.

While the so-called War on Terror continues, Bali and Indonesia as a whole will remain adversely affected in the minds of overseas visitors, especially those from the West. But with the domestic consumer economy chugging along nicely, the potential to encourage internal and regional travellers remains a viable prospect for airlines and hotels alike.

-- The writer can be reached at Debnath.Guharoy@roymorgan.com

Jakarta business executives prefer staying at hotel during floods

Jakarta (ANTARA News) - Business executives in flood-hit Jakarta at the end of their working day now prefer to retire to hotels closest to their offices rather than risk being trapped in flood-related traffic jams or other obstacles on their way to their own homes.

The risk of running into inconvenience, difficulty or trouble in Jakarta's streets has considerably increased since incessant rains over the past three days causing flooding in many parts of the Indonesian capital.

"Our hotel's occupancy rate has increased following the heavy rains and floods during the past two days. Businesss executives are reluctant to brave the rains and floods. So, after work hours, they check in at hotels," Sahid Jaya hotel public relations manager Megasari Rustianty said here.

She said more than 70 percent of Sahid Jaya's 670 rooms were booked during the past two days while previously occupancy only averaged 60 percent.

The business executives who actually live in Kelapa Gading, Kemang, Kwitang, Setiabudi, Mampang, Pesanggrahan, and Kampung Melayu areas checked in at the hotel without making reservations, she said

Other hotels in Central Jakarta's business districts also saw an increase in their occupancy rates.

"The same thing happened two years ago when wide areas of the capital's territory were inundated," Megasari said.

It was reported from Surabaya on Friday subscribers of state telecommunication company PT Telkom and its cellular telephone provider Telkomsel could not contact phone numbers in Jakarta on Friday when most parts of the capital city were inundated by floods.

East Java Telkom's communication manager Djadi Soegiarto blamed the telecommunication disruption on the Jakarta floods.

Vital telecommunication installations in the Semanggi area in Central Jakarta were submerged in flood waters so they could not function properly.

Meanwhile, a political observer at Gajah Mada University in Yogyakarta, Cornelays, suggested that the center of the Indonesian government be moved from Jakarta to a location that could not be severely affected by annual floods.

"Perhaps we should pursue the late president Soekarno's idea to move the center of the government from Jakarta to either Palangkaraya (Central Kalimantan) or Palu (Central Sulawesi) or former president Soeharto's plan to relocate the central government to the Jonggol area in West Java," he told ANTARA News from Yogyakarta.

But in Cornelays' own view, the center of Indonesia's administration should be moved to Banten province where Jakarta's Soekarno-Hatta International airport is located.